• Iris Verhulsdonk, Alessandro Nai, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2022. "Are Political Attacks a Laughing Matter? Three Experiments on Political Humor and the Effectiveness of Negative Campaigning" in Political Research Quarterly. 75(3): 720-737.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Research on the effectiveness of negative campaigning offers mixed results. Negative messages can sometimes work to depress candidate evaluations, but they can also backfire against the attacker. In this article, we examine how humor can help mitigate the unintended effects of negative campaigning using data from three experimental studies in the United States and the Netherlands. Our results show that (1) political attacks combined with “other-deprecatory humor” (i.e., jokes against the opponents) are less likely to backfire against the attacker and can even increase positive evaluations of this latter—especially when the attack is perceived as amusing. At the same time and contrary to what we expected, (2) humor does not blunt the attack: humorous attacks are not less effective against the target than serious attacks. All in all, these results suggest that humor can be a good strategy for political attacks: jokes reduce harmful backlash effects against the attacker, and humoros attacks remain just as effective as humorless ones. When in doubt, be funny. All data and materials are openly available for replication.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Alessandro Nai, and Pippa Norris. 2018. "Dial 'F' for Fraud: Explaining Citizens Suspicions about Elections" in Electoral Studies. 53: 11-19.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Doubts about electoral integrity, whether true or false, can undermine faith in the legitimacy of the democratic process. We investigate the reasons for such doubts in the case of the 2016 Federal elections in Australia. A three-wave panel survey of the electorate established that one third of Australians believed (falsely) that the outcome was fraudulent – a remarkable level of scepticism in an established democracy with a long history of clean and well-run contests. One reason was that many Australians misunderstood their electoral system. Media stories of electoral maladministration also led Australians – especially electoral losers -- to be suspicious and to embrace reforms. The results suggest that officials seeking to restore public confidence should strengthen civic education and improve electoral administration, particularly where the rules of the game are complex.

• Stephen P. Nicholson, Christopher J. Carman, Chelsea M. Coe, Aidan Feeney, Balazs Feher, Brett K. Hayes, Christopher Kam, Jeffrey A. Karp, Gergo Vaczi, and Evan Heit. 2018. "The Nature of Party Categories in Two-Party and Multi-Party Systems" in Advances in Political Psychology. 39(1): 279-304.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Categories are one of the primary ways by which people make sense of complex environments. For political environments, parties are especially useful categories. By simplifying political life, party categories enable people to make sense of politics. A fundamental characteristic of party categories is that they minimize perceived differences of members within a party (e.g., two Democrats) and maximize perceived differences between members of different parties (e.g., a Republican and a Democrat). In two-party systems, politicians in leftist parties will often be perceived as highly differentiated from politicians in right-wing parties. Yet, in multi-party systems there is greater complexity and potential for confusion since there are often multiple parties on the left and/or right. Spatial models of political competition predict that ideologically close neighboring parties will be perceived as similar yet a categorical perspective holds that the public will perceive parties on the same side of the ideological divide to be dissimilar. In the present paper, we review a research program investigating how political parties are treated as categories and present new data from seven democracies showing that people perceive parties to be highly differentiated regardless of where parties are located in ideological space.

• Todd Donovan and Jeffrey Karp. 2017. "Electoral Rules, Corruption, Inequality and Evaluations of Democracy" in European Journal of Political Research.56(3): 469-486
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Features of electoral systems have been found to have positive effects on evaluations of democracy. This article proposes that there are larger social forces that must be accounted for in such analyses. Using European Social Survey measures of democratic expectations and the ‘satisfaction with democracy’ item, this study tests for effects of electoral rules on perceptions of democracy. It is found that multipartyism/proportionality and preferential ballot structure appear to correspond with positive evaluations of elections and parties, and with greater satisfaction with how democracy is functioning. However, these relationships dissipate when corruption and income inequality are accounted for. This suggests substantial limits to the capacity of electoral reforms to enhance democratic legitimacy. It also suggests that studies of mass perceptions of democratic performance may over-estimate effects of electoral rules if country-level corruption and income inequality are not accounted for.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Maarja Luhiste. 2016. "Explaining Political Engagement with Online Panels: Comparing the British and American Election Studies." in Public Opinion Quarterly 80(3): 666-693.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Online surveys have seen a rapid growth in the last decade and are now frequently being used for electoral research. Although they have obvious advantages, it is unclear whether the data produce similar inferences to more traditional face-to-face surveys, particularly when response to the survey is correlated with the survey variables of interest. Drawing on data from the latest American and British Election Studies, we examine how age affects political engagement comparing responses between face-to-face and online surveys. The results indicate that online surveys, particularly those where respondents have opted-in, reduce variance and overestimate the proportion of those who are politically engaged which produces different conclusions about what motivates citizens to vote. These findings suggest that there is a greater need to acknowledge selection bias when examining questions about political engagement, particularly when it comes to election surveys that rely on opt-in panels that are more likely to attract those who are interested in the subject matter and thus more politically engaged.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Caitlin Milazzo. 2015. "Democratic Scepticism and Political Participation in Europe." in Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 25(1): 97-110.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  The former Communist countries of Eastern Europe have markedly lower levels of voter turnout than Western European countries, which could be a cause for concern if it represents a rejection of democratic values. In this article, we examine what people think about democracy and how these attitudes affect their likelihood of participating in the democratic process. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems drawn from national election surveys in 22 countries in Eastern and Western Europe, we find that citizens in Eastern Europe are more likely to express doubts about democracy and be dissatisfied with how it works in practice. More importantly, while we demonstrate that attitudes about democracy do affect political participation, they cannot fully account for the low levels of turnout observed in post-communist countries. This has implications for our interpretation of the significance of low turnout in national elections.

• Juliet Pietsch, Michael Miller, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2015. "Public Support for Democracy in Transitional Regimes." in Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 25(1): 1-9.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  This special issue looks closely at how democracy is understood and experienced in transitioning regimes. A central goal of the issue is to look at the underlying cultural and political orientations and indicate how such orientations stem from and reinforce political systems. The articles focus is on unconsolidated democracies in Eastern Europe and East Asia with comparisons also made to the regions� liberal democracies. Below we provide an overview of some of the key elements of citizen orientations towards democracy. We then describe the value of looking specifically at Eastern Europe and East Asia, summarize the key findings of the individual papers, and finally indicate some avenues for future research.

• Daniel Stevens and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2012. "Leadership Traits and Media Influence in Britain" in Political Studies. Volume 60, 787-808.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Although party leaders are now assumed to play a more important role in parliamentary elections, little is known about how voters form opinions about leaders. In this paper, we rely on theories of priming to investigate how media exposure influences leadership evaluations. The analysis is based on a unique examination of the nature and dynamics of leadership evaluations in Britain that combines survey data with media content data to investigate how perceptions of character traits affect leadership evaluations. Our findings show that both the amount and the tone of newspaper media coverage can affect leadership evaluations which could in turn gain or lose a party large amounts of support.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2012. "Electoral Systems, Party Mobilisation and Political Engagement" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 47, No. 1. 71-89.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Electoral systems are assumed to enhance political efficacy and encourage participation through party mobilisation because they create incentives for parties (or candidates) to mobilise voters. This paper makes use of survey data collected after elections in more than 30 countries, spanning a variety of party systems in both established and new democracies, to examine how party mobilisation varies across context and what difference it makes. The results demonstrate that political efficacy and behaviour are enhanced when parties mobilise voters. This is most likely to occur in systems where parties compete in a narrow issue space. In contrast, citizens are less likely to come into contact with parties in polarised systems. This has consequences for both political attitudes and engagement.

• Daniel Stevens, Susan Banducci, Jeffrey Karp and Jack Vowles. 2011. "Priming Time for Blair? Media Priming, Iraq, and Leadership Evaluations in Britain" in Electoral Studies. Volume 30, No. 3. 546-560.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Priming is often mentioned in studies of media effects in Britain, yet empirical tests of its extent and nature are lacking; most evidence of priming effects is from the United States. Moreover, research on British elections concludes that the media have little impact on the public�s perceptions of issues, including in the 2005 election. In this paper we argue that priming by the British media has been misconceived and thus not studied adequately. We demonstrate that the issue of the war in Iraq was primed by media coverage in 2005, both as a consequence of the volume of coverage of the issue and its tone. The influence of Iraq was not just long-term, via its impact on confidence in the Labour government or Tony Blair�s reputation, but was also affected by media coverage during the campaign. We also demonstrate that the media�s coverage of Iraq in 2005 influenced voters� evaluations of Blair by polarizing consumers of the same news. Finally, we find slightly more of an impact of the tone of coverage of Iraq in 2005 but it is moderated by the editorial stance of the newspaper�the editorial stance of British newspapers still seems to matter, suggesting that the dealignment of the British press has not eliminated the influence of reading a newspaper that endorses a party, no matter how qualified that endorsement may be.

• Daniel Stevens, Jeffrey A. Karp and Robert Hodgson. 2011. "Party Leaders as Movers and Shakers in British Campaigns: Results from the 2010 Election" in Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. Volume 21, No. 2. 125-145.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  There is an increasing recognition of the importance of party leaders in British elections. The 2010 election only served to reinforce their perceived importance with the introduction of three leaders� debates. Thus, more than ever, an understanding of contemporary elections necessitates an understanding of the dimensions of leadership thatmatter most to voters. In this paper, we examine the influence of perceptions of the three major party leaders as responsive, trustworthy, and knowledgeable. We also examine how the debates and other events unfolding during the campaign served to structure these perceptions. We find evidence that voters� evaluations of party leaders can vary substantially over the course of the campaign and traits such as responsiveness weigh heavily in voters�assessments. We also find convincing evidence of media effects, suggesting that voters are receptive to events unfolding during the campaign.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Caroline J. Tolbert. 2010. "Support for Nationalizing Presidential Elections" in Presidential Studies Quarterly. Volume 40, No. 4. 771-793.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Despite very different historical and constitutional bases for how we nominate presidential candidates and elect presidents to office, as well as very different political processes (sequential versus simultaneous voting), both the presidential nominating process and the Electoral College are rooted in state elections not a national election, and both create state winners and losers. Previous research has not explored the role of state influence or state self-interest in presidential elections. Early voting states in the nomination process benefit, as do battleground or �swing� states in the general election, especially small population battleground states. There are widespread concerns that too much attention is paid to Iowa and New Hampshire who vote first in the presidential nomination process (Winebrenner 1988; Squire 1989) and to Ohio and Florida in the general election. Today there are repeated calls to reform both the presidential nomination process and the Electoral College. Under riding calls for reform of both processes is a desire for fairness and consistency. One solution that appears to have broad appeal is to nationalize elections by adopting a national primary and a national popular vote, circumventing the Electoral College. In this paper we consider how the public may evaluate such proposals against competing factors that may reduce support.

• Sara B. Hobolt and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2010. "Voters and Coalition Governments" in Electoral Studies. Volume 29, No. 3. 299-307.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Coalition governments are the norm in parliamentary democracies. Yet, despite the predominance of this type of government, political scientists have only recently started to investigate how voters approach elections when a coalition government is the likely outcome. Such elections present additional uncertainty and complexity for voters compared with elections in plurality systems, where party choice translates more directly into a choice of government. These factors have lead to the assumption that strategic voting is unlikely to occur in systems that produce coalition governments. In this introductory article to the special issue on Voters and Coalition Governments, we consider whether voters have the capacity to anticipate specific coalition outcomes and propose a framework for understanding the conditions the lead to strategic voting in both plurality and proportional systems.

• Shaun Bowler, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Todd Donovan 2010. "Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 29, No. 3. 350-357.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Whereas the classic literature on strategic voting has focused on the dilemma faced by voters who prefer a candidate for whom they expect has little chance of winning a seat, we consider the dilemma faced by voters in PR systems who do not expect their preferred party to be in government. We develop hypotheses relating to strategic voting over multi-party governments that we test using the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) campaign study of 2002. We find evidence that expectations play a role in structuring vote choice. While there is clear evidence of wishful thinking there is also evidence that voters respond to expectations about government formation. These expectations may lead voters to defect from their first preference or even decide not to turn out and vote.

• Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Peter H. Loedel. 2009. "Economic Interests and Public Support for the Euro" in Journal of European Public Policy. Volume 16, No. 4. 564-581.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Although economic theories have been advanced to explain public support for the common currency, we know very little about how public support for the euro has been affected by its economic impact. We hypothesize that concern about rising prices following the introduction of the euro may have dampened enthusiasm for the project. We use Eurobarometer data from 2000-2007 to examine how rising prices and other economic factors have shaped support for the euro. We find that while inflation has had a negative impact on support for the euro it is offset by the positive effect of diffuse support for the European Union. This support, along with the impact of a strong currency, has led most (2/3�s) Europeans to be generally positive about the euro.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2009. "Candidate Effects and Spill-Over in Mixed Systems: Evidence From New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 28, No. 1. 41-50.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Although mixed member proportional (MMP) systems offer several advantages they also have one potential problem that threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes. Some suggest that these systems suffer from a �contamination effect� where candidates have the potential to influence the party list vote which ultimately determines the partisan composition of parliament. This paper examines this theory in New Zealand which has conducted four elections under MMP. The analysis is based on district level data merged with individual level data. The findings suggest that although many voters do not have an opinion of candidates, those who do are likely to evaluate incumbents and party leaders more positively. While these factors can also have an influence on the party list vote, the overall effect is quite limited.

• Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, Michael Thrasher, and Colin Rallings. 2008. "Ballot Photographs as Cues in Low Information Elections" in Political Psychology. Volume 29, No. 6. 903-917.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  In low information elections, voters are often faced with the task of choosing from a list of unknown candidates. By examining a set of low information elections where candidate photographs were displayed on the ballot, we test how first impressions of candidates can influence election outcomes. We find that attractive candidates are more likely to be attributed the qualities associated with successful politicians and these trait inferences, based on facial appearances, influence the outcomes of elections. We also find that these trait inferences are based on physical characteristics of the candidates, such as age, race and ethnicity, evident from a photograph. Therefore, first impressions can be important determinants of election outcomes, especially in low information elections.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2008. "When Politics is Not Just a Man's Game: Women's Representation and Political Engagement." in Electoral Studies. Volume 27, No. 1. 105-115.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Although women appear to be less interested and less engaged in politics than men, some evidence suggests that the presence of women as candidates and office holders can help to stimulate political engagement among women. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we investigate how the election of women in national legislatures influences their political engagement and attitudes about the political process across 35 countries. We find that sex differences in political engagement as well as political attitudes are apparent in a large number of countries. We find also that female representation is positively associated with attitudes about the political process; however, these effects, while weak, are seen among both men and women.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2008. "Political Efficacy and Participation in Twenty Seven Democracies: How Electoral Systems Shape Political Behavior" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 38, No. 2. 311-334.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Advocates of proportional representation (PR) often cite its potential for increasing citizen involvement in politics as one of PR�s fundamental advantages over plurality or first past the post (FPP) systems. The assumption is that plurality electoral systems distort the translation of votes into seats discouraging and alienating small party supporters and other political minorities. In contrast, PR systems are believed to provide greater opportunities for representation which are assumed to instill greater efficacy and participation. We examine this theory linking institutions to electoral participation across a diverse set of countries using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Using a multi-level approach we find evidence consistent with the expectations about the negative influence of disproportional systems on political minorities. Voters are also likely to have stronger partisan preferences in PR systems, which enhances political efficacy and increases voter participation. The effects of PR, however, are not all positive; broad coalitions, which are likely to be a feature of these systems, reduces political efficacy

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Susan A. Banducci and Shaun Bowler. 2008. "Getting Out the Vote: Party Mobilization in a Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 38, No. 1. 91-112.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: A long tradition within political science examines the impact of party canvassing on voter participation. Very little of this work, however, is comparative in scope. This essay examines how system-level characteristics shape the nature and impact of party canvassing and how voters respond to those efforts. Parties are found to target the same types of potential voters everywhere � those who are likely to participate. However, one important difference is that overall levels of party contact are far greater in candidate-based systems than in proportional representation (PR) systems. Party mobilization, therefore, cannot explain the higher rates of turnout observed in PR systems.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Marshall W. Garland. 2007. "Ideological Ambiguity and Split Ticket Voting" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 60, No. 4. 722-732.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Recent research on congressional elections suggests that voters are more likely to split their votes in ideologically extreme districts. The authors suggest that in this type of context, uncertainty about candidate position rather than clarity explains the occurrence of ticket splitting. Using data from a rolling cross-section campaign survey where two incumbents competed in a predominately conservative district, the authors find that a substantial proportion of voters are likely to have difficulty identifying which congressional candidate was more conservative. Moreover, media exposure contributed to ambiguity over candidate position, which increases the likelihood of ticket splitting.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2007. "Reforming the Electoral College and Support for Proportional Outcomes" in Representation. Volume 43, No. 4. 239-250.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  In 2004 voters in Colorado decided whether to approve an initiative that would divide the state�s nine electoral votes on a proportional basis rather than retain the existing system that awards electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. Using data collected through a pre election survey, this paper examines how voters in Colorado who were exposed to a debate over proportionality reacted to the reform proposal. The results indicate that gender differences and political values such as ideology play more of a role than partisan self interest in structuring preferences about electoral institutions. The results have implications for how voters reason when confronted with a choice to reform institutions.

• Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2007. "Enraged or Engaged? Preferences for Direct Citizen Paricipation in Affluent Democracies" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 60, No. 3. 351-362.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Widespread approval of direct democracy has been attributed to politically engaged citizens who seek more opportunities to participate in politics. Others suggest that people prefer a limited role in politics, but cynicism with representation leads them to embrace direct democracy. The authors analyze opinion in sixteen affluent democracies to test these explanations. They find expectations of �more participation� were motivated by distrust of government and the belief that a citizen had a duty to keep a watch on government. Distrust, however, was associated with less support for referendums in several nations. Support for referendums was greater among people who expect more opportunities to participate in public decisions and from people who were interested in politics, trusted government, and were satisfied with how democracy was working. Enthusiasm for direct democracy may reflect what people find lacking in representative democracy as much as it reflects interest in a more participatory version of democracy.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2007. "Party Mobilization and Political Participation in New and Old Democracies" in Party Politics. Volume 13, No. 2. 217-234.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Political parties play a pivotal role by mobilizing citizens to participate in the political process. This may be particularly important in new democracies, where party attachments are weak and voter turnout is low. Using data drawn from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we examine citizen�s reported contact with political parties during a national campaign across a range of democracies. We find that rates of reported contact are lower in new democracies and that on average citizens appear to be less engaged in the political process. Nevertheless, parties in new democracies appear to be more likely to target citizens than in old democracies. Their efforts lead them to be just as successful if not more so at stimulating political participation.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Political Knowledge about Electoral Rules: Comparing Mixed Member Proportional Systems in Germany and New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 25, No. 4. 714-730.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Mixed electoral systems are considered by some to be "the best of both worlds" because they combine single member district representation with proportional outcomes. Critics, however, maintain that such systems cause voter confusion leading some to cast misinformed votes. Survey data from Germany and New Zealand are used to investigate voter's political knowledge of the electoral system and their voting behavior. The findings suggest that knowledge about the electoral system is similar in New Zealand and in Germany. Although some may very well find the system complex, there is no evidence to suggest that a lack of knowledge about the electoral system influences voting behavior, undermining the claims made by skeptics who fear that misunderstanding threatens the legitimacy of electoral outcomes.

  Acknowledgements: I would like to thank Edmund Lauf who contributed to an earlier paper on which this analysis is partly based. The paper was presented at the 2002 Meeting of the German Studies Association, San Diego, California. October 3-6.

• Todd Donovan and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Popular Support for Direct Democracy" in Party Politics. Volume 12, No. 5. 671-688.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: The expanding use of direct democracy in many established democracies reflects a desire to provide citizens with more opportunities to be involved in the political process. These changes are assumed to be embraced by those who demand greater citizen involvement, though the underlining motivation remains unclear. One theory assumes that support is likely to come from citizens who have a deep interest in politics and are politically active. Another theory offers a contrasting view, claiming that those who find themselves on the periphery of politics and are largely disenchanted find such proposals attractive. We examine these theories drawing on public opinion surveys from six established democracies. We find that younger citizens and those who are more interested in the political process are more supportive of direct democracy while political disaffection has a less consistent impact.

• Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Forecasting and Evaluating the Consequences of Electoral Change in New Zealand" in Acta Politica. Volume 41, No. 3. 267-284.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: The debate in New Zealand over whether to adopt a mixed member proportional (MMP) system was based on a number of predictions about the effects of electoral systems. After four elections under MMP we are now in a better position to evaluate the validity of the claims. We find that both proponents and opponents made claims that proved to be true but there were also unforeseen consequences that neither side could have predicted.

• Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2006. "Why Politicians Like Electoral Institutions: Self-interest, Values, or Ideology?" in Journal of Politics. Volume 68, No. 2. 434-446.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: We examine whether MPs and candidates for parliament are motivated by electoral self-interest, values, ideology, or all of these when evaluating proposals for changing electoral institutions. Using survey data from four countries (Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and New Zealand), we find that candidates who won election are less supportive of proposals to change institutions, while those who lost elections are more supportive of institutional changes. Winning candidates share preferences for institutions that are independent of whether they are affiliated with a governing or opposition party. This self-interest effect is attenuated by ideology and attitudes about democracy. Pure self-interest, then, is an incomplete explanation for politicians' attitudes towards electoral institutions. We discuss how these findings are related to the static nature of political institutions.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler. 2006. "Broadening and deepening or broadening versus deepening: The question of enlargement and Europe's hesitant Europeans" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 45, No. 3. 369-390.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: The European Union sees the inclusion of many Eastern European states -- enlargement -- as a natural progression in the process of building an �ever closer union�. For the Commission in particular, the process of enlargement (broadening) is part of the process of integration and acts as a complement to the development of a stronger role for the EU and its institutions or deepening of integration. But as the first Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty showed, not all of European�s citizens see the two processes of enlargement and integration in the same light. This paper addresses two related questions: first, how are attitudes towards deepening and broadening related? Do European citizens see them as complementary or as contradictory? Second, and related to the first, what factors drive popular attitudes towards enlargement?

• Jeffrey A. Karp and David Brockington. 2005. "Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Over-Reporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries" in Journal of Politics. Volume 67, No. 3. 825-840.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Theory and evidence suggests that the source of over-reporting of voter turnout in election surveys is largely due to a respondent�s incentive to offer a socially desirable response. We suggest that contextual influences may affect the socially desirable bias, leading to variance in the rate of over-reporting across countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that nonvoters will be more likely to over-report voting in elections that have high turnout. We rely on validated turnout data to measure over-reporting in five countries which vary a great deal in turnout: Britain, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We find that in national settings with higher levels of participation, the tendency to over-report turnout may be greater than in settings where low participation is the norm.

• Shaun Bowler and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Politicians, Scandals and Trust in Government" in Political Behavior. Volume 26, No. 3. 271-288.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: In this paper we examine the role that political scandals play in eroding regard for government and political institutions in general. We know that scandals can lower regard for individual politicians and government leaders. Yet, less is known about how scandal influences attitudes toward institutions and the political process. It has been widely assumed that such attitudes are influenced by factors that lie largely beyond the control of individual politicians. Using data from the U.S. and the U.K. we show that scandals involving legislators can have a negative influence on their constituent's attitudes toward institutions and the political process. One consequence of this finding is that, instead of looking for scapegoats in Hollywood or among the failings of voters themselves, politicians should first get their own House in order.

• Todd Donovan, Shaun Bowler, Robert Hanneman and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Social Groups, Sport and Political Engagement in New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 39, No. 2. 405-419.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Many prominent social theorists contend that memberships in voluntary associations make major contributions to making citizens more engaged with democracy. Although substantial attention has been directed at the potential role of sports groups, previous studies using survey data have not found membership in sports groups to be associated with political activity. New Zealand presents an important context for testing this theory, given its high levels of public participation in sports groups. We find that membership in sports and other social groups is associated with higher levels of political engagement. We discuss how these findings advance our understanding of the role that specific group memberships may have in democratic societies.

• Susan A. Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. "Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation" in Journal of Politics Volume 66, No. 2. 534-556.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: We examine how the context of representation affects citizens� attitudes about their representatives and government and their likelihood of voting. According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government and encourages political participation among minorities. We examine this from a cross-national perspective, making use of rare survey data that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect constituency representatives of their choice. We find that in both countries, descriptive representation matters. In the United States, blacks who have black representatives are more likely to have knowledge about their representative, and are more likely to contact and approve of their representative. Similarly, we find that in New Zealand the ethnicity of the representative makes a difference. Where Maori hold constituency seats, Maori citizens are more likely to see government as responsive and are more likely to vote than Maori outside these constituencies. Our results suggest that rules leading to greater descriptive representation of minorities have effects that transcend standard assessments of a tradeoff between substantive and descriptive representation. These findings have broad implications for debates about methods designed to enhance minority representation.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2003. "How Elections Change the Way Citizens View the Political System: Campaigns, Media Effects, and Electoral Outcomes in Comparative Perspective" in British Journal of Political Science. Volume 33, No. 3. 443-467.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Attitudes toward the political system have often been assumed to be stable attributes that are not easily influenced by short term forces. In this paper we examine the extent to which attention to media coverage, campaign activity, and electoral outcomes can mobilize political support in the context of an election campaign. Using pre and post-election survey panels from the United States, Britain and New Zealand, we find significant changes on most indicators of political support. In particular, election winners, regardless of the political system, are happier than losers. Aside from electoral outcomes, attention to the media, particularly serious news coverage, can enhance attitudes toward the political system. The results have implications for the debate over the meaning of political support.

• Susan A. Banducci, Jeffrey A. Karp, and Peter H. Loedel. 2003. "The Euro, Economic Interests and Multi-level Governance: Examining Support for the Common Currency" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 42, No. 5. 685-703.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Support for a common currency and the European Monetary Union signifies that European citizens are willing to transfer power from the nation-state to the European Union. Given the symbolic importance of national currencies, this willingness to give up sovereignty over currency has important implications for the further integration and development of the EU. Drawing on a multi-level governance perspective of European integration, we examine how economic factors such as the value of the national currency and individual factors such as diffuse support for the EU and education condition support for the euro. We hypothesize that citizens will be less likely to support a common currency when they lack diffuse support for the EU, when their own national currency is strong or when their country's domestic agenda is squeezed by austerity measures. Using pooled Euro-barometer data from 1992 to 2000, we find support for these hypotheses indicating that citizens take into account domestic economic performance when evaluating EU institutions but individual attitudes toward the EU also play a role in support for the euro.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Susan A. Banducci, and Shaun Bowler. 2003. "To Know it is to Love it? Satisfaction with Democracy in the European Union" in Comparative Political Studies. Volume 36, No 2. 271-292.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Recent reforms have been designed to enhance the power of the European Parliament to counter criticisms of a "democratic deficit" in the European Union (EU). This paper examines how citizens now view these institutions and whether such evaluations influence their satisfaction with the way democracy works in the EU. Previous research has maintained that evaluations of the quality of democracy are difficult to assess because opinions about the EU largely reflect opinions about national institutions. Our results indicate that this is not necessarily the case, particularly among those who are politically aware. Those with high levels of political knowledge rely more heavily on institutional evaluations when assessing democracy in the EU. We also find evidence that evaluations of democratic performance in the EU are motivated by the economic benefits and costs associated with membership. The implications for the "democratic deficit" and the satisfaction with democracy measure are discussed.

• Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2002. "When Might Institutions Change? Elite Support for Direct Democracy in Three Nations" in Political Research Quarterly . Volume 55, No 4. 731-754.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Citizen initiated referenda (CIRs) allow groups and individuals outside a legislature to draft policies that, if approved in a popular vote, may be binding on government. Some observe that such practices are fundamentally inconsistent with representative democracy, with parties as organization, and with responsible government in particular. Given the potentially antagonistic relationship between legislative institutions and CIRs, and the fact that CIRs might alter how legislatures operate, support for CIRs among legislators would appear somewhat paradoxical. Using survey data from three nations we examine the nature of support among legislators and aspiring legislators as a way of testing hypotheses about elite motivations for changing political institutions. Our results suggest that greater resistance to CIRs is found among incumbents generally, the governing party in particular, and among respondents who place themselves at the ends of the ideological spectrum.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2002. "Issues and Party Competition under Alternative Electoral Systems" in Party Politics. Volume 8, No 1. 123-141.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Proximity and directional spatial models yield different predictions for mass-elite linkages under alternative electoral rules. Whereas the proximity or Downsian model predicts that parties are likely to adopt positions that are closer to their voters, the alternative directional model predicts parties will adopt more extreme positions in order to generate political support among an electorate that has diffuse policy interests (Rabinowitz and Macdonald 1989; Macdonald, Listhaug and Rabinowitz 1991; Rabinowitz, Macdonald and Listhaug 1991). Theoretical arguments lead us to expect that the directional model is most applicable in plurality systems, while the proximity model is best for describing party and voter behavior in multi-party systems. While others have examined these models from a cross national perspective, we employ an alternative research design using candidate and mass opinion data from New Zealand where voters have experienced a change in the electoral system.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Jack Vowles, Susan A. Banducci, and Todd Donovan. 2002. "Strategic Voting, Party Activity, and Candidate Effects: Testing Explanations for Split Voting in New Zealand's New Mixed System" in Electoral Studies. Volume 21, No 1. 1-22.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Recent research on voting in Germany's mixed electoral system suggests that split voting has more to do with voter confusion than sophistication, although this remains a matter of debate. We examine this question in the context of New Zealand's new mixed system, which is modeled after Germany's. We focus on alternative explanations for split voting. One is derived from theories of strategic voting, which hypothesises that voters will split their votes when their preferred party's candidate is not viable in single member district (SMD) contests. We also consider the influence of party attachments and candidate preference. We examine these explanations using both aggregate and individual level data. The assumption that split voting in mixed systems is largely due to confusion is not supported in New Zealand as split voters cast votes in predictable patterns. In particular, we find that strategic defections are more likely to occur when the preferred candidate is not viable. Those with higher levels of political knowledge are more likely to defect from nonviable candidates. Partisan attachments and candidate effects also help to explain split voting.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler. 2001. "Coalition Politics and Satisfaction with Democracy: Explaining New Zealand's Reaction to Proportional Representation" in European Journal of Political Research. Volume 40, No 1. 57-79.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Following approval of a referendum in 1993, New Zealand replaced its first-past-the-post electoral system with proportional representation (PR). Although support for PR was initially high, less than a third expressed support for the system a year and a half after holding the first election held under PR. We examine two explanations for this decline. One theory assumes that dissatisfaction with the new system is the result of a growing alienation with politics, exacerbated by an unpopular coalition government that voters neither expected nor desired. Another theory assumes that evaluations of the new system are mediated by a preference for coalition or single party government. Our results indicate that a preference for single party government, guided primarily by partisan self-interest, has the largest impact. Nevertheless, negative evaluations of the performance of the coalition government helped contribute to a loss in support for PR suggesting that government performance can affect citizen's evaluation of political institutions, particularly when systems undergo radical change.

• Jeffrey A Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2001. "Absentee Voting, Participation, and Mobilization" in American Politics Research. Volume 29, No 2. 183-195.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Liberal absentee laws are designed to make voting easier which should stimulate turnout. Using data from the National Election Studies, we test the hypothesis that persons who choose to vote early are already highly motivated to participate in the political process. We find support for this hypothesis, which raises questions about the extent to which liberal absentee laws can expand the electorate. Furthermore, contrary to past research, we see the Republican advantage in absentee voting as a result of self-selection rather than party mobilization.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A Karp. 2000. "Gender, Leadership and Choice in Multiparty Systems" in Political Research Quarterly. Volume 53, No 4. 815-848.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: While a significant amount of research seeks to explain the comparative number of women in national legislatures, there is little research that examines the effects of women's leadership of political parties on voting behaviour. This paper brings together research on leadership effects in parliamentary elections and female candidate effects in legislative races. Ideological, structural, and situational differences between men and women have been used to explain gender gaps in voting. We explore an alternative explanation � gender identity. When women candidates are present, the gender identity hypothesis assumes that women voters are more likely to choose women candidates because of gender. While this hypothesis has been tested in legislative races, it has not been applied to party leaders in parliamentary elections. We test the gender identity hypothesis in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Britain. We find that leadership evaluations affect vote choice across all countries but the effects of gender and the combined effects of gender and leadership differ across countries.

• Jeffrey A Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2000. "Going Postal: How All Mail Elections Influence Turnout" in Political Behavior . Volume 22, No 3. 223-239.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: We examine the question of whether or not reducing the costs of voting by conducting elections entirely through the mail rather than at the traditional polling place increases participation. Using election data from Oregon, we examine whether or not elections conducted through the mail increase turnout in both local and statewide elections. We also examine how postal voting may alter the composition of the electorate using precinct level data merged with census data. We find that, while all mail elections tend to produce higher turnout, the most significant increases occur in low stimulus elections, such as local elections or primaries where turnout is usually low. The increase in turnout, however, is not uniform across demographic groups. Voting only by mail is likely to increase turnout among those who are already predisposed to vote such as those with higher socio-economic status. Like other administrative reforms designed to make voting easier, postal voting has the potential to increase turnout. However, the expanded pool of voters will be limited most likely to those already inclined to vote but find it inconvenient to go to the polling place. This conclusion is consistent with the growing body of research that suggests that relaxing administrative requirements is not likely to be the panacea for low turnout among the disenfranchised.

• Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 1999. "Perceptions of Fairness and Support for Proportional Representation" in Political Behavior. Volume 21, No 3. 217-238.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: This article explores the causes and consequences of evaluations of the political system and support for electoral system change. In 1993 New Zealand voters adopted a referendum which fundamentally changed the way representatives are elected moving from a plurality to a proportional (PR) electoral system. We explore the role of cynicism about the political system in adopting PR and how electoral change may shape evaluations of the political system. We expect that political minorities and those dissatisfied with the current performance of government are more likely to be cynical about the fairness of the political process and that these evaluations are related to support for PR. In turn, supporters of the referendum should judge the political system more favorably once the reform is implemented. Using panel data from the 1993 and 1996 New Zealand Election Studies, we find that support for PR is based on evaluations of the government performance as well as more general evaluations of the fairness of the political system. Those who supported PR and are politically aware are also more likely to have an increase in favorable evaluations of the political system.

• Susan Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey Karp. 1999. "Proportional Representation and Attitudes About Politics: Results from New Zealand" in Electoral Studies. Volume 18, No 4. 533-555.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: PR systems are often credited with producing more equitable outcomes between political parties and encouraging wider social group representation than majoritarian systems. Theory suggests this should instill greater trust, efficacy, and faith in the political system. We assume that citizens disadvantaged by majoritarian rules (political minorities) would have a relatively greater shift toward positive attitudes about democracy following a transition from a majoritarian system to proportional representation. We employ panel data from the 1993-1996 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) to test hypotheses about the effects of electoral system change on attitudes about governmental responsiveness, trust in government, and political efficacy. We find that there was a general shift in mass opinion toward more positive attitudes on some measures of efficacy and responsiveness. However, although political minorities display a greater shift toward feelings of efficacy than other voters, they did not come to see government as more responsive or more worthy of trust as compared to other voters.

• Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 1999. "The Impact of Proportional Representation on Turnout: Evidence from New Zealand" in Australian Journal of Political Science. Volume 34, No 3. 363-377.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Theories of voter turnout assume that institutional arrangements dramatically alter incentives for participation. Countries with proportional representation (PR) are assumed to increase the incentives to participate because they reduce the proportion of votes that are wasted giving voters a stronger incentive to participate and parties a stronger incentive to mobilise voters. This paper departs from previous cross-national studies by employing individual level data during a transition between electoral systems in one country. We use survey data collected before and after electoral reform in New Zealand to examine patterns of participation among political minorities. As a direct test of individual change, the analysis is supplemented with survey data from the last election held under first past the post (FPP) merged with validated participation data from the following election held under PR. We find that the adoption of PR in New Zealand has succeeded initially in fostering more positive attitudes about the efficacy of voting. In New Zealand's first election held under proportional representation, voters who are on the extreme left were significantly more likely to participate than previously leading to an overall increase in turnout.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 1995. "Explaining Public Support for Legislative Term Limits" in Public Opinion Quarterly. Volume 59, No 3. 373-91.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: A number of theories have been offered to explain popular support for term limits and their passage in states across the country. Using survey data from the 1992 American Election Study and several other statewide surveys, this article examines the following explanations for term limits support: dissatisfaction with Congress and state legislators, cynicism, self-interest, and ideology. An Analysis of these data suggest that term limits support is not influenced by a dissatisfaction with legislatures or particular incumbents or by a specific ideology. Instead, support for term limits is related to cynicism and, to some extent, self-interest.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 1994. "The Electoral Consequences of Scandal and Reapportionment in the 1992 House Elections" in American Politics Quarterly. Volume 22, No 1. 3-26.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: The authors examine the electoral effects of political scandal and redistricting, two conventional wisdom explanations for 1992's higher than usual House turnover. They use the strategic politician theory as a basis for their analysis to examine retirements, primary outcomes, and general election outcomes. The theory assumes that politicians (both incumbents and challengers) behave strategically and will run or not run based on the prevailing political climate. The authors find support for the theory with regard to retirements; embattled incumbents are more likely to retire. Their analysis of the primary and general election outcomes, however, finds mixed support for the theory. Nevertheless, the check scandal and redistricting had a direct impact on the incumbent's vote margin, making the elections more competitive

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Jack Vowles. 2017. "From National to Cross-National Political Polls and Surveys: When Country/Elections Become Cases" in Lonna Atkeson and Michael Alvarez (eds.) Oxford University Press Handbook on Polling and Polling Methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  This chapter examines the development of cross-national survey research in political science and the challenges that it brings. Cross-national surveys have proliferated across the globe and arguably now form one of the most important frontiers in the development of survey research in political science. Cross-national comparison allows researchers to investigate the importance of institutional and cultural contexts that shape public opinion and political behavior. The chapter traces the development of such instruments for the purposes of comparative analysis in political science, in the context of more general developments in polling and survey research. As an example, it focuses on the case of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), an international collaboration active since 1996, examining the development of the project and evaluating issues such as cross-cultural equivalence in questionnaire design, survey mode and response rates, and case selection.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Caitlin Milazzo. 2016. "Globalization and Voter Turnout in Times of Crisis" in Jack Vowles and Georgios Xezonakis (eds.) Globalization and Domestic Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Previous studies suggest that globalization may depress voter turnout by making citizens feel powerless. During times of economic crisis, the effects of economic integration may be more pronounced. At the same time, anecdotal evidence from the current global financial crisis suggests an alternative perspective. Popular protest movements, such as Occupy Wall Street in the US provide evidence that citizens can, in fact, by mobilized by crisis. If so, then adverse economic conditions may motivate rather than discourage citizens to become more involved in the political process. We examine these questions drawing on data collected over a forty year period and in public opinion surveys conducted in a number of countries before and after the financial crisis.

• Karp, Jeffrey A. 2014. "Generations and the Referendum on MMP" in Jack Vowles (ed.) in The New Electoral Politics in New Zealand: The Significance of the 2011 Election. Institute for Governance and Policy Studies: Victoria University Press. 185-196.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Changes to electoral systems are rare. New Zealand’s experience with electoral system change sets it apart from many other established democracies. Rarely do citizens have the opportunity to vote directly on legislation that proposes a change to the “rules of the game”. The 2011 election marked the sixth election held under the MMP system that was introduced in 1996. It also marked the third time in nearly 20 years that the electorate would be asked to vote on changing the electoral system.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Susan A. Banducci. 2011. "The Influence of Party and Electoral Systems on Campaign Engagement" in Citizens, Context, and Choice: How Context Shapes Citizens' Electoral Choices. Russell J. Dalton and Christopher J. Anderson, (eds.). Oxford University Press. 55-78.
  [view abstract]
  Abstract: This chapter focuses on how political and institutional features encourage or inhibit more active forms of political participation. Specifically, we explore how the electoral supply (both in terms of the nature and extent of choices) and other contextual factors, such as the electoral system, number of parties, democratic development and whether voters are choosing between parties or candidates, influence whether and how citizens engage in electoral campaigns either by persuading others to vote or by engaging in campaign related activity such as attending rallies. We untangle the mechanisms by which these contextual factors matters by testing how the relationship between context and political participation is shaped by the intervening activities of party mobilization and through stronger party preferences. Furthermore, we test whether these contextual relationships are conditioned by individual characteristics of the voters. Our results show that context matters, however, these effects are strongest on the intermediary variables of party mobilization and strength of partisan attachments. Furthermore, the effects of these intervening variables are conditioned by party polarization such that their effects are stronger in polarized party systems.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2009. "Electoral Systems, Efficacy, and Voter Turnout" in The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Hans-Dieter Klingemann, (ed.). Oxford University Press. 109-136.
  [view abstract]
  Abstract: One of the least disputed conclusions to emanate from the research on electoral systems and turnout is that countries with proportional representation (PR) have higher voter turnout. Some estimate that PR systems have a turnout advantage as high as 12 percent (Franklin 1996). There is, however, disagreement over the mechanisms by which PR produces higher turnout. Some believe that PR helps to foster higher turnout by increasing a citizen�s perception that his or her votematters in an election. Because plurality elections give all the spoils to the single candidate who receives the most votes, the potential decisiveness of a vote for a minor party or noncompetitive candidate is minimized. On the other hand, in PR systems, where the proportion of votes gained by a party is more closely related to the share of seats that a party receives, all votes could potentially be decisive in determining the number of seats a party gains in parliament. Past research therefore, has assumed that the disproportionality between seats and votes in plurality systems instills in voters a sense that their vote is wasted if not cast for a viable candidate. This lack of efficacy contributes to comparatively lower rates of participation in plurality systems than in PR systems.

• Susan A. Banducci and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2008. "Mobilizing Political Engagement and Participation in Diverse Societies: The Impact of Institutional Arrangements" in Designing Democratic Government: Making Institutions Work. Margaret Levi, James Johnson, Jack Knight, and Susan Stokes, eds. Russell Sage Foundation. 62-88.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: The process of democratization in an increasing number of diverse societies has focused attention on how best to devise electoral systems (as well as other institutions) in order to manage ethnic conflict. Institutional arrangements that allow for power-sharing between groups or arrangements that encourage political actors to appeal to those outside their groups are thought to increase legitimacy and reduce (or channel) conflict. We investigate which electoral and institutional arrangements influence political support and engagement across 33 ethnically diverse countries. Contrary to what we might expect from consociational accounts, we find that single member plurality electoral systems tend to reduce differences between ethnic minorities and non-minorities in terms of political engagement. When access to political power is limited, there is some evidence that differences are exaggerated while special accommodation tend to increase differences in participation but minimize difference in government support. We discuss these findings in light of other research on institutional arrangements and political engagement of ethnic groups.

• Susan A. Banducci, Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2005. "Effects of Minority Representation on Political Attitudes and Participation" in Diversity in Democracy: Minority Representation in the United States. Gary M. Segura and Shaun Bowler, eds. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press. 193-215.
  [view abstract]
  First paragraph: Over the past two decades, race has been said to matter less as a factor explaining US voter turnout (Flanigan and Zingale 1998:43; Abramson et al. 1998:73). Some studies find that when numerous individual-level factors are considered, African Americans are no less likely to vote than whites (Zipp 1985), or are more likely to vote, other things being equal (Leighley and Nagler 1992). In particular, the turnout gap between whites and African Americans becomes substantially muted when education is accounted for (Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980).

• Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 2004. "Political Parties and Party Mobilisation" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 104-116.
  [view abstract]
  Last paragraph: These findings lead us to conclude that party mobilisation is not responsible for the higher turnout observed in PR systems. Such a pattern presents a puzzle for our understanding of turnout since, plainly, the higher levels of turnout under PR cannot be associated with higher levels of party campaigning under PR. Indeed, turnout would be even lower in FPP systems if it were not for party mobilisation. One possible explanation for this result is that parties and candidates must work harder to mobilize voters when turnout is low. In New Zealand, overall turnout has been declining since 1984 except for an increase in 1993 at the time of the MMP referendum and during the first election held under MMP in 1996 (see chapter 2. The shift to PR in New Zealand may have had the effect of raising turnout temporarily, but has not reversed the earlier trend. Turnout may still be higher than it would have been had New Zealand retained first past the post. The decrease in turnout is consistent with the decline in party mobilisation. While there are other factors that may explain the decline (see Vowles 2002), it is evident that the decline in party activity is partly responsible. As we have seen, parties can and do stimulate turnout. The question remains how to provide greater incentives for parties to reach out to the voters.

• Raymond Miller and Jeffrey Karp. 2004. "A Vote for Coalition Government" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 134-149.
  [view abstract]
  First paragraph: At the 2002 election the voters were presented with two governing alternatives, neither of which included National. The steady stream of speculation that filled the media vacuum created by the absence of other campaign issues had one common theme: What kind of Labour government? Having for several months enjoyed support averaging more than 50 per cent, Labour was initially well placed to win a majority of seats, although with an undertaking from the prime minister that there would be a place at the cabinet table for the former Alliance leader, Jim Anderton. Given the extent of coalition failure under MMP, beginning with the collapse of the National-New Zealand First government in 1998, followed by the damaging split within the Alliance between 2001 and 2002, the latter providing the prime minister with justification for an early election, Labour appeared to be well placed to exploit any opposition to coalition government. During the course of the campaign, support for the minor parties increased sharply, if haphazardly, as voters, having been deprived of the campaign cues provided in 1999, when Labour reached a pre-election coalition understanding with the Alliance, mulled over the relative merits of the single party and coalition alternatives.

• Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 2004. "New Zealand in a Comparative Context" in Voters' Veto: The 2002 Election in New Zealand and the Consolidation of Minority Government 150-166.
  [view abstract]
  Conclusion
  The 2002 election in New Zealand was a singular event in place and time, and may be assessed as such. But elections and liberal democracies, being global phenomena, makes it also possible to view the New Zealand experience from a comparative perspective. As a result, we have been able to cast a different light on trends across several important political dimensions. For example, while, there has been a decline in class voting in New Zealand as in other democracies, we have also seen that the relationship between socio-economic factors and vote choice varies across countries, and from this comparative perspective was relatively strong in New Zealand in 2002.

  We have shown that the adoption of MMP in New Zealand parallels the growing endorsement of mixed electoral systems around the globe. In this respect, New Zealand also fits in with evidence that electoral institutions can have some influence on voter participation and attitudes toward the democratic process. Notwithstanding the adoption of proportional representation, the decline in turnout in New Zealand is largely consistent with trends in turnout in other post-industrial societies. However, the decline in turnout is not secular, turnout having remained stable or increased in some countries.

  The evidence presented in this chapter suggests that the type of electoral system influences electoral participation, and to some extent also, support for large or small parties. Although small party supporters have lower levels of satisfaction than large party supporters, the differences between them are reduced in PR systems. This is consistent with expectations that proportional systems help to facilitate more positive political attitudes. It also complements recent evidence from New Zealand, where political minorities experienced a greater shift in efficacy than other voters following the adoption of proportional representation (Banducci, Donovan, and Karp 1999).

  Satisfaction with democracy is fairly high in New Zealand, when compared with other countries for which there are similar data. Overall, however, satisfaction with democracy seems to be more highly correlated with economic performance than with evaluations of politicians. In other words, suggestions of a crisis in legitimacy in liberal democracies may be overstated. Rather than indicating the failure of modern democracy, declining expressions of trust and increasing levels of cynicism may be more closely linked with shifts in the economy than with fundamental shortcomings of representative government.

• Jeffrey A. Karp, Shaun Bowler and Susan A. Banducci. 2003. "Electoral Systems, Party Mobilization, and Turnout: Evidence from the European Parliamentary Elections" in British Elections and Parties Review, Volume 13. Frank Cass Publishers. 210-228.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Abstract: Much of the comparative literature on turnout suggests that party mobilization efforts can explain the turnout advantage among electoral systems that use proportional representation (PR). In this paper we examine this question in the context of the 1999 European Parliamentary elections. Using survey data from a range for European countries, we show that party campaign activity is not the mechanism that produces the higher levels of turnout found in PR systems. If anything, citizens are more likely to be mobilized under candidate based systems rather than closed list PR. There are, moreover, predictable differences in campaign activity across different electoral systems.

• Jeffrey Karp. 2002. "Members of Parliament and Representation" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 130-146.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Democratic politics everywhere, regardless of the role of referendums (see Chapter 10), are founded on representation. MPs elected to Parliament may bring their personal attributes with them, but they are there to speak not for themselves but as the representatives of various wider interests, some clear-cut, others shifting or informal. Most obviously, they represent their respective parties. The equally long tradition of geographical representation is present in the country�s 61 General electorates, while six separate Maori electorates in 1999 ensured the representation of New Zealand�s indigenous population. The process of group-interest representation is generally thought to be strengthened when in the hands of an MP who is visibly of that group.

• Jeffrey Karp and Peter Aimer. 2002. "Direct Democracy on Trial: The Citizens-Initiated Referendums" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 146-159.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  First paragraph: When New Zealanders went to the polling booths on election day in 1999, some were surprised to be issued with a bundle of papers. As well as their general election ballots, voters also faced two citizens-initiated referendums (CIRs). Citizens� initiatives were a relatively recent addition to the country�s democratic practices. The legislation enabling such initiatives was passed late in 1993, only a few weeks before the referendum approving MMP. The timing was not entirely fortuitous. Both CIR and MMP were nurtured by the same widespread mood of disillusion, to which National politicians were tactically, and in many cases reluctantly, responding (Jackson and McRobie 1998, 86�92). Since 1993, however, only one initiative had proceeded to a referendum vote. In 1999, therefore, citizens-initiated referendums, like MMP, were on trial.

• Jack Vowles, Jeffrey Karp, Susan Banducci, and Peter Aimer. 2002. "Public Opinion, Public Knowledge, and the Electoral System" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 160-174.
  [view abstract]
  First paragraph: Support for MMP between 1990 and 1993 was fuelled most by disillusion with the status quo. The vision of an alternative style of politics that might be expected to result from the shift to proportional representation, multi-party politics and coalition governments was less clear. For while the foundations of attitudes to FPP were based on experience, those for MMP were necessarily abstract and hypothetical. That changed after the first MMP election in 1996. From then on public opinion both for and against the new system would be shaped by experience. MMP, New Zealand�s version of proportional representation, was on trial.

• Jack Vowles, Jeffrey Karp, Susan Banducci, Peter Aimer, and Raymond Miller. 2002. "Reviewing MMP" in Proportional Representation on Trial: The 1999 New Zealand General Election and the Fate of MMP. Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Jeffrey Karp, Raymond Miller, and Ann Sullivan. Auckland University Press. 175-191.
  [view abstract]
  First paragraph: In August 2001 a parliamentary committee set up to review MMP released its report, somewhat oddly named as �an inquiry into a review�. Made up of representatives from all parties represented in Parliament except New Zealand First, which had declined membership, the committee was unable to agree on any action. The public reaction, such as it was, was critical. In particular, those wishing to see the size of Parliament reduced and an immediate referendum on MMP accused the members of the committee opposing those changes of �arrogance�.

• Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Expectations of Change" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 1-11.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Unbroken transitions between substantially different electoral systems are rare events. An unbroken transition takes place when there is an interval of relatively �normal politics� between two democratic elections under different rules. It therefore excludes changes following disruptions such as war, dictatorship, the establishment of a new state, or the reappearance of an old one. There were only 14 such transitions in Europe between 1885 and 1985, with five concentrated in one country, France (Bartolini & Mair 1990, 154�5).

• Susan Banducci, Jeffrey Karp, and Jack Vowles. 1998. "Vote Splitting Under MMP" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 101-119
  [view abstract] [view paper]

• Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Representation Under a Proportional System" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 135-152
  [view abstract] [view paper]

• Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci. 1998. "Voter Satisfaction After Electoral System Change" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 153-170
  [view abstract] [view paper]

• Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. 1998. "Voter Rationality and the Advent of MMP" in Voter's Victory? New Zealand's First Election Under Proportional Representation. Edited by Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer, Susan Banducci, and Jeffrey Karp. Auckland University Press. 192-211
  [view abstract]

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 1998. "The Influence of Elite Endorsements in Initiative Campaigns" in Citizens as Legislators. Edited by Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Caroline Tolbert. Ohio University Press. 149-165.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  First Paragragh: In November of 1991, voters in Washington State rejected an initiative that would have placed limits on the number of terms elected officials could serve. The term limits inititive would have forced the state's entire congressional delegation, including Speaker of the House Tom Foley, to leave office after serving just one more term in office. The 1991 term limits defeat in Washington State was unique and unexpected. Just one year before, the term limits movement appared to have strong momentum when voters approved term limits initiatives in California, Colorado, and Oklahoma. Initially the Washington measure enjoyed widespread support; however, after an expensive and hotly contested campaign, the measure failed with 46% of the vote. A year after the defeat, voters in Washington and 13 other states passed similar term limits measures. Most of these passed easily, with little or no opposition. By the end of 1995, voters in more than 20 states approved ballot measures limiting the number of terms of either or both state legislators and members of Congress.

• Co-Principal Investigator. "The Electoral Learning and Capacity Training" (ELECT). 2016. With Alessandro Nai (PI) and Pippa Norris (Co-PI). Research supported by the Association of World Electoral Bodies (A-WEB). Amount awarded: $28,950.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) are the central agencies responsible for running elections in countries around the world. This report, developed by EIP in conjunction with the Association of World Electoral Bodies (A-WEB), examines how to strengthen professional electoral administration.

  Electoral management bodies (EMBs) are the front-line agencies for electoral governance. Ideally for contests to meet global norms, electoral officials should ensure that they deliver public services meeting professional international standards. As International IDEA suggests, electoral management should seek to follow certain fundamental guiding principles, including independence, impartiality, integrity, transparency, efficiency, professionalism and service-mindedness.

  Yet meeting these ideal standards generates major challenges. These organizations are typically responsible for a wide range of tasks, which may include determining who is eligible to vote, who or what appears on the ballot, polling and conducting and tabulating the votes. EMBs may also be involved with the regulation and oversight of campaign finance, the registration of political parties, the role of the news media during campaigns, electoral boundaries, civic education, and dispute resolution.

  Consequently, EMBs serve multiple functions central for the smooth conduct of elections, for the legitimacy of democratic institutions, and for peaceful transitions in power. It is important to understand the capacity of EMBs to fulfill these functions � and the limits arising from limited technological, human and financial resources.

• Principal Investigator. "The Australian Voter Experience (AVE)". 2016. With Pippa Norris and Alessandro Nai (Co-PIs). Research supported by the Australian Electoral Commission. Amount awarded: $47,468.
  [view abstract] [view paper]
  It is vitally important that all Australian citizens are satisfied with the electoral process and confident that their vote counts. Any doubts about the integrity and security of the registration and balloting process, as well as public dissatisfaction with the efficiency, fairness, and transparency of how elections are managed, have the capacity to erode citizen�s trust in political parties and parliament, to fuel public disaffection with government, reinforce cynical views about politics and even to undermine faith in democracy

  This EIP report presents the data of a new 3-wave panel survey designed to gather the views of a representative sample of ordinary Australians just before and after the 2nd July 2016 Australian federal elections. The survey monitored Australian voters' experience at the polls, perceptions of the integrity and convenience of the registration and voting process, patterns of civic engagement, public confidence in electoral administration, and attitudes towards reforms, such as civic education campaigns and convenience voting facilities.

  The dataset contains information from a three-wave panel survey designed to gather the views of a representative sample of ordinary Australians just before and after the 2nd July 2016 Australian federal elections. The survey monitored Australian voters� experience at the polls, perceptions of the integrity and convenience of the registration and voting process, patterns of civic engagement, public confidence in electoral administration, and attitudes towards reforms, such as civic education campaigns and convenience voting facilities. Respondents were initially contacted in the week before the election between 28 June and 1 July and completed an online questionnaire lasting approximately 15 minutes. This forms the pre-election base line survey (wave 1). The same individuals were contacted again after the election to complete a longer survey, an average of 25 minutes in length. Respondents in wave 2 were contacted between 4 July and 19 July, with two thirds completing the survey after the first week. About six weeks later, the same respondents were interviewed again (wave 3) beginning on 23 August and ending on 13 September. The initial sample contains 2,139 valid responses for the first wave of questionnaires, 1,838 for the second wave (an 86 percent retention rate), and 1,543 for the third wave (84 percent retention rate). Overall, 72 percent of the respondents were carried over from the pre-election wave to the final wave.

• Principal Investigator. Comparative Cross National Research (CCNER). 2010-14. Co-investigators, Daniel Stevens, Susan Banducci, Nicole Bolleyer and Jack Vowles. �296,000. Funded by the Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC).
  [view abstract]
  Large scale comparative cross-national data collection efforts present new challenges for social scientists in the development of survey questions, sampling and case selection, data linkages and statistical analysis. While such data collection enhances and broadens the capacity of cross-national researchers to examine issues such as the interaction of institutions, culture and individual political behaviour, crossnational researchers too rarely have the luxury of stepping back from their data and asking fundamental questions about data quality and analysis. The focus of this project is on doing precisely that, thus developing capacity and good practice in the analysis of large scale cross-national data sets. We aim to accomplish this through convening a series of workshops at national and international conferences and publishing and disseminating materials from them.

• Principal Investigator. Social Desirability and the Survey Response: Validating Voter Turnout. 2009-10. �6,306. Funded by the Nuffield Foundation Social Sciences Small Grants Scheme.
  [view abstract]
  The proposed research will accomplish several objectives. First, it will produce a high quality data set that will produce precise and unbiased estimates of voter participation in a national election that will inform our understanding of the causes of low voter turnout. Second, it will provide for a better understanding of response bias in national election surveys and third, it will produce new insights about the impact of social desirability and the survey response.

• Jeffrey A. Karp and Marshall Garland. 2022. "Electoral Fraud and Political Violence: Evidence from Several Experiments" Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Montreal, Quebec, Canada. September 14-18
  [view abstract]
  Recent surveys indicate that many Republicans now believe that the 2020 Presidential election was stolen and that some are willing to engage in political violence in order to preserve the integrity of elections. We use a series of survey experiments to investigate the extent to which a lack of confidence in elections is a partisan issue and whether it can be linked to political violence. We find that doubts about the integrity of elections can easily shift from one party to another depending on electoral outcomes and electoral processes. This can lead citizens on both the left and the right to express a willingness to engage in political violence. The findings have implications for debates about how to reform elections and the future of American democracy.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2022. "Gender Stereotypes and Leadership Evaluations: Do Voters hold Female Prime Ministers to a Different Standard?" Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, Nashville, TN. March 28-April 2.
  [view abstract]
  A large body of research suggests that female politicians are subject to gender stereotypes. This research, however, has focused primarily on hypothetical figures or candidates who are not well known. This paper examines whether such stereotypes apply to women who extremely well known and the extent to which they are advantaged or disadvantaged by these stereotypes. Drawing on data from elections in nine countries over a 30 year period, this paper investigates what difference the gender of a prime minister makes in parliamentary elections. The findings challenge common gender stereotypes in the literature but nonetheless suggest that the gender of a leader matters and can influence leadership evaluations and vote choice.

• Jeffrey A. Karp. 2019. "Should Congress Look Like America? Explaining Preferences about Descriptive Representation with Experimental Data" Paper prepared for the Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC. August 29- September 1.
  [view abstract]
  Descriptive representation is believed to provide both an important symbolic value for underrepresented groups such as women and minorities as well as policy benefits. Not much is known, however, about how the public views diversity in representation. This paper draws on experimental data collected after the 2018 midterm election to investigate how people form opinions about the gender and racial balance in the U.S. Congress. The analysis has implications for our understanding of public attitudes about government and institutions as well as understanding how concerns about minority representation structure support for electoral reform.

• Alex N. Adams, Lonna Rae Atkeson, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2017. "Data Quality, Professional Respondents and Discontinuous Surveys: Issues of Engagement, Knowledge and Satisficing"
  [view abstract]
  Academics are increasingly relying on online panels as sources of public opinion data to answer research questions. Online panel members are professional respondents, who take many surveys in response to requests and rewards. Because these types of respondents take many surveys they may experience panel conditioning due to learning about the survey process and topics, attitude crystallization, and changes in motivation and engagement. We find evidence of panel conditioning effects across several indicators including: decreased survey duration times, increased political knowledge and non-differentiation of responses. The implications of these findings include the need to control for survey experience in models of political behavior and the need to ensure balance on survey experience in survey experiments. Foremost, these results strongly suggest that more consideration of how professional respondents influence data quality from online survey panels is needed. Therefore, we recommend that academic survey researchers demand that future data releases using online panels include these types of metadata so that we can assess and control for these potential effects. In addition, survey research firms need to make more effort to maintain the number of fresh respondents participating in online surveys.

• Introduction to World Politics Brunel (Fall 2022)
  [view abstract]
  The growing interdependence of the world's economies, culture, and populations is changing politics in profound ways. In this module, we will discuss the concept of globalization and examine how this process is transforming the nation state and shaping domestic politics. In the first part of the module, we will discuss how some of the most important issues that confront society today transcend national boundaries. In the second party of the module, we will examine the effects of globalization on inequality within countries and discuss its influence on public opinion and support for populist parties.

• Comparative Electoral Systems Brunel (Spring 2022)
  [view abstract]
  This module is an introduction to the study of electoral systems and voters. We will examine the design of electoral systems around the world and examine their impact on voter turnout, vote choice, and political attitudes. We will also evaluate the extent to which electoral rules can help resolve conflict in divided societies and improve the representation of women and under-represented groups. The module will provide you with an understanding of how rules affect political behaviour and representation which can help to inform debates about how best to design electoral rules that strengthen and enhance democracy.

• Introduction to Comparative Politics Brunel (Spring 2022)
  [view abstract]
  The module introduces you to the study of comparative politics. The module will examine how the design of political institutions reflects competing visions of democracy and the implications this has for the processes that link citizens and policymakers. We will focus on various aspects of the political system such as the differences between parliamentary and presidential systems, federal and unitary systems, electoral rules, party systems. We will then consider how these institutional differences influence how political actors and citizens engage in the political process.

• Explaining Politics: Quantitative Political Science in Practice Brunel (Spring 2021)
  [view abstract]
  In this module, we will focus on the use of quantitative methods because this is the most widely used methodology in political science today. By the end of the module, you should have an enhanced understanding of why political scientists rely on numbers and what implications this has for understanding real world political problems. We will focus on data analysis, introducing you to some of the basic statistical skills employed in political science. You will learn SPSS, a user-friendly statistical software program, which will give you the opportunity to analyse real political data. At the end of the course, we hope that you will be comfortable not only reading and interpreting material that relies on quantitative data but also using data in your own research.

• Explaining Politics: Quantitative Political Science in Practice Brunel (2019-2020)
  [view abstract]
  In this module, we will focus on the use of quantitative methods because this is the most widely used methodology in political science today. By the end of the module, you should have an enhanced understanding of why political scientists rely on numbers and what implications this has for understanding real world political problems. We will focus on data analysis, introducing you to some of the basic statistical skills employed in political science. You will learn SPSS, a user-friendly statistical software program, which will give you the opportunity to analyse real political data. At the end of the course, we hope that you will be comfortable not only reading and interpreting material that relies on quantitative data but also using data in your own research.

• U.S. Politics ANU (2014)
  [view abstract]
  The aim of this course is to introduce students to American political behaviour and institutions. We will also examine how reforms to governmental institutions and processes influence the way citizens interact with government. Throughout the module we will make comparisons between the American system and other democracies around the world.

• Elections, Political Behaviour and Public Opinion in Australia ANU (2013)
  [view abstract]
  The course is designed to introduce students the field of comparative political behaviour with a specific focus on elections, political behaviour and public opinion in Australia. Some of the questions that we will be looking at include:

  1. Why do Australians vote the way they do?
  2. Why are young people more likely to support minor parties?
  3. What would happen if voting were not compulsory?
  4. Do Australians want the government to play a larger or smaller role in our lives?

  The answers to these questions have very important implications for Australian democracy. This course will also examine how the dimensions of political behaviour and public opinion have been changing over time and the implications of this for the future of Australian politics.

  This course is weighted towards quantitative research methods which are a powerful way to explore substantive research questions in political science. Skills in quantitative research and data analysis are highly sought after by employers in both public and private sectors.

• Electoral Politics Exeter (Fall 2011)
  [view abstract]
  This module provides students with an overview of the major empirical research conducted in the area of electoral politics. The studies evaluated here are drawn from a wide range of democracies. This is especially useful when we are interested in questions about institutions and the relationship between institutions and elections. The course will cover topics that include electoral systems, the role of political parties, the nature of political campaigns, voting and political behaviour.

• American Politics Exeter (Fall 2011)
  [view abstract]
  This module provides an introduction to American political behaviour and institutions. We will discuss the design and rationale for the American political system and the implications it has for both citizen involvement and governing. We will also examine how reforms to governmental institutions and processes influence the way citizens interact with government. Throughout the module we will make comparisons between the American system and other democracies around the world.

• Elements of Research Design in Politics Exeter (Fall 2011)
  [view abstract]
  This module is designed to enable students to learn the principals and practice of: good research design; rigorous data construction and interpretation; the presentation of research findings; and the appraisal and evaluation of research.

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Portions copyright © 1994-2011 their respective holders.